The history of the hard disk drive (HDD) industry spans over 67 years and has seen its fair share of ups and downs. Introduced by IBM in 1956, HDDs have remained a staple in the storage industry despite the changing landscape. Over the years, various tech industry analyst firms have tracked the revenue and sales volume of HDDs, providing valuable insights into the market trends.
Recently, Tom Coughlin, President of Coughlin Associates and a storage analyst and consultant, collaborated with Tom Gardner, a colleague in the hard disk business, to produce illuminating charts that depict the performance of the HDD industry over its history. These charts offer a comprehensive view of the industry's revenue trends, showcasing both linear and logarithmic representations for clarity.
The data presented in the charts reveals interesting patterns. While the linear chart shows some inconsistencies in collating revenue data from different analyst firms, the logarithmic chart provides a smoother and more predictable representation of the revenue trend over time. Both charts highlight 2012 as the year of peak revenue for the HDD industry, with 2010 being the peak for shipment volumes. This disparity can be attributed to the impact of the Thai floods in 2011, which led to HDD shortages and subsequent fluctuations in supply and demand.
Despite the decline in revenue and shipment volumes, Coughlin notes that HDD prices have generally been on the rise. This trend can be attributed to the shift towards high-capacity devices, as solid-state drives (SSDs) have gained popularity in consumer devices with lower storage requirements.
Looking ahead to 2023, Coughlin predicts a continued decline in HDD shipments and revenues. However, there is hope on the horizon, as the projected AI boom in 2024 is expected to drive increased demand for both NAND Flash and HDD storage. This anticipated surge in demand is expected to stabilize the HDD industry, with projected shipments of 127 million units and revenues of just under $14 billion.
In conclusion, while the HDD industry has experienced challenges in recent years, there are signs of recovery on the horizon. The projected AI boom in 2024 is expected to provide a much-needed boost to the industry, offering a glimpse of hope for HDD manufacturers amidst a period of decline.